Predictions: What Went Wrong?

7 août 2020
211 671 Vues

Who will win the presidency? Literally, WHO knows?!
Go to and use promo code ‘WISECRACK’ for 10% off your order! Thanks to Ridge for sponsoring this episode!
Why are even the smartest, most competent statisticians seemingly incapable of making a solid prediction about... seemingly everything? It's because making predictions is tricky, and so much media we read about statistics can be super misleading. Let's find out why in this Wisecrack Edition on The Trouble with Political Predictions.

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Written by: Alec Opperman
Research by: Jeanette Moreland
Hosted by: Jared Bauer
Directed by: Michael Luxemburg
Motion Graphics by: Riley A.
Wisecrack Edition Title Card Design: Amanda Murphy
Editing by: Henry Camacho
Produced by: Evan Yee

#election2020 #politicalpredictions

© 2020 Wisecrack / Omnia Media, Inc.

  • What are some of your favorite prediction fails?

    WisecrackWisecrackIl y a 2 mois
    • capitalism lifting the world out of poverty was/is a pretty big fail.

      Gary GrinkevichGary GrinkevichIl y a mois
    • here in brazil they predict with the bolsonaro's victory the GDP will double and the real will rise against the dollar.... 2020 inflation on the rise as a new higher bill (now we had a R$200 bill) is seeing as a government victory, dollar is 5,30 against the real (mas 3,60 last year and 3,00 when bolsonaro took power) and our GDP is falling a lot.... just as a example... the brazilian minimum wage was about $400 in 2012... now is worth $187....

      Christian CordobaChristian CordobaIl y a mois
    • You will cut your hair.

      Rawfun ShovonRawfun ShovonIl y a mois
    • @J D yeah. Mostly it's just guys like you.

      Arvin BuenaaguaArvin BuenaaguaIl y a mois
    • @Arvin Buenaagua you should! It's comforting to know you actually interact with any one who actually performs science on this topic

      J DJ DIl y a mois
  • Is that why fivethirtyeight's logo is a fox? Because Nate Silver is kind of a hedgehog.

    SoftandFadingSoftandFadingIl y a jour
  • I basically don't trust predictions. Ever.

    troryANCAStroryANCASIl y a 10 jours
  • Wisecrack without Jared just doesn’t hit the same :(

    Jesus NunezJesus NunezIl y a 10 jours
  • Toss a coin , it is probebly just as reliable at predictions .

    David HillDavid HillIl y a 12 jours
  • This is such an important thing to understand about models and predictions and I really wish more people understood this before jumping onto bandwagons or lambasting SMEs

    JustinaJustinaIl y a 12 jours
  • Nobody knows anything and people like to use their title or money to take advantage of people. Humans are greedy.

    Olando AnônimoOlando AnônimoIl y a 13 jours
  • Long time no see Jared. Welcome back!

    susanne aniquesusanne aniqueIl y a 14 jours
  • So youre not leaving ?

    Stannie PetkovStannie PetkovIl y a 16 jours
  • Well the problem is you believes the news outlets in the first place

    Ricky DeleonRicky DeleonIl y a 16 jours
  • My prediction is that all the bad things this year will not be here next year.

    Johnny 5Johnny 5Il y a 17 jours
  • Hey moderator. The shirt you are wearing looks filthy. Like you just changed the oil on your car and got some of it on your shirt. Anyway it is very distracting.

    Sam SneadSam SneadIl y a 19 jours
  • I think if you’re in commercial news broadcasting you should t be allowed to call yourself news. I think if “the news” was designated strictly to the nonprofit sector and fox cnn and msnbc publicly had to identify themselves as entertainment we’d get surprisingly far

    Christopher BarberChristopher BarberIl y a 19 jours
  • intro/background song plz

    EnfirnityEnfirnityIl y a 20 jours
  • The Greek poet Archilochus wrote that " knows many things, but the knows one big thing." This was the fable that led to the essay "The Fox and the Hedgehog" by philosopher Isaiah Berlin. He said not to take it too seriously, but essentially, the hedgehog views the world through a single lens, while the fox is a more agile thinker. Conservatives, in Berlin's view, tend to be hedgehogs, while liberals (meaning classical liberals, not modern-day American "liberal=progressive" tend to be foxes. It makes sense, since conservatism is a reactionary mindset that favors low-risk and tends to crave the certainty of continuity--essentially, restrictions--while liberalism favors less restriction because it hampers commerce. However, applying this to pundits in America is difficult (as Tetlock does) because of everything discussed in this video: the pundit is not desired for accuracy, but for hot takes. The video is correct that a "fox" in Tetlock's view would be boring and reliable, while the hedgehog is going to take huge swings. There's a great scene in "The Big Short" where a hedgehog financial guy is predicting an investment bank is still safe AS THEIR STOCK IS TANKING. He saw revising his position as weakness. To be fair to the 2008 hedgehogs, no one (aside from a few people) believed it was possible the banks could be so irresponsible. Very similar to Trump--no one believed he could win, and when he did, no one believed he could be as chaotic as he is (which is true if you love him or hate him--he is very chaotic). A lot of things go wrong because "no one believes X can happen."

    samringwaldsamringwaldIl y a 20 jours
  • 7:45+: But what about the number of Wisecrack subs who have Covid. If it's low, you could see a surge in subscribership. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Borach McTeagueBorach McTeagueIl y a 20 jours
  • Imperial Collegr is one of the worst institutes to predict outcomes... but i totally agree with the video

    Senpai TMSenpai TMIl y a 21 jour
  • I am aware of most of these issues and often forget them for a knee jerk reaction. This should be part of political/media studies 101. People need to understand when an educated guess is an educated guess and what that means, so that they can see when guess, that is not interested in being educated, is a lie. (Apologies if that makes no sense - I was trying to be pithy)

    Richard JonesRichard JonesIl y a 21 jour
  • I miss jared lol

    thecynicalladthecynicalladIl y a 21 jour
  • As a recent political science graduate I feel qualified to say, don’t listen to us. We don’t know shit. Our entire field is mostly made up anyway

    Brandon GinkelBrandon GinkelIl y a 22 jours

    Patrick RatliffPatrick RatliffIl y a 22 jours
  • Thanks for expressing this so well.

    PatternSeekingApePatternSeekingApeIl y a 22 jours
  • You: Pundits Me: Professional Wrong Persons

    Adam VeeAdam VeeIl y a 22 jours
  • The problem with predictions is that they can't be repeated or retested

    Richaell RibeiroRichaell RibeiroIl y a 22 jours
  • Wait I thought Jarad retired....

    Harry MoranHarry MoranIl y a 23 jours
  • My prediction for COVID-19: it’s going to be around until we get a vaccine. The most simple explanation that doesn’t need to look at infection rates/death rates.

    Billy MastersonBilly MastersonIl y a 24 jours
  • What to do when you hear a prediction? Take it with a grain of salt and dont treat it like gospel

    Im the best thing since sliced RiceIm the best thing since sliced RiceIl y a mois
  • Don't listen to Wisecrack.Very weird predictions ;-)

    hblaubhblaubIl y a mois
  • But I'm certain Trump will win.

    Cr OwnCr OwnIl y a mois
  • Wisecrack is more unbiased than the news lol

    MightyGnomeMightyGnomeIl y a mois
  • I felt Chidi so hard when he was choosing that muffin.

    Debra BakerDebra BakerIl y a mois
  • "We are actually very good at predicting the weather" WRONG We are exceptionally bad at predicting the weather. Compared to virtually all other sciences that are about observing and predicting things in nature. "Chaos Theory" stems from meteorologists inability to predict the weather even with the most powerful computers. It is not a fundamental insight into the nature of the universe, it is an excuse why weather prediction does not work. The reason WHY we are so bad at predicting the weather is most certainly, that fundamental assumption of how the weather works are WRONG. Therefore the models, the computers operating on those models, produce nonsensical results and we can't predict the weather.

    InternetStudiesGuyInternetStudiesGuyIl y a mois
  • Really going to miss Jared :/

    Michael MarentMichael MarentIl y a mois
  • I studied political science. My predictions in the broad sense have been right, as in the general direction of things. But when you start getting into specifics like who will win or the spread on an election. Yeah, I'm pretty much always wrong.

    Cody DarrCody DarrIl y a mois
  • The prediction before the 2008 financial crash that you shouldn't take your money out of the stock market was 100% accurate. Anyone who avoided panic selling made a mint within a few years. You're also misunderstanding the purpose of predictions. Some predictions are just plain wrong. They don't fulfill their purpose of accuracy. Others are just plain lies, with the predictor using the prediction to drive people's actions. You can't really call these "wrong" predictions, since the purpose isn't accuracy.

    NessieNessieIl y a mois
  • discard anyone you suspect of political bias or financial incentives... which means you need to educate yourself to recognize when bias or incentive is in play, including your own! but examples of this are climate deniers working for the fossil fuel industry or right-wing think tanks (Left-wing think tanks hardly exist), gender study and sociology professors. PS, in the case of political bias I am not saying they are automatically wrong just to watch out for blind spots within their reasoning. If they are just wrong they tend to be bill crystal type hedgehogs anyway and they are very easy to spot.

    luciditylucidityIl y a mois
  • Well would it be a possibility that these predictions are less used to predict what might actually happen and more a tool to ensure a sort of mass agreements via confirmatory cognitive bias, allowing people to only hear what they want to hear and consolidating opinions.

    Sam MitraSam MitraIl y a mois
  • I stopped watching the news a long time ago. Its just toxic and mentally unhealthy.

    Mike FMike FIl y a mois
  • how to get at least one prediction right say a bunch of prediction predict none of those will be right there-you've got 100% you'll get at-last one right but you guaranty that you'll also not gonna get all of them right but common, what were your chances anyway

    Yoni The KYoni The KIl y a mois
  • You guys should do a philosophy of selling out to sponsors. Im pretty sure you guys dont use the shit you sponsor so stop acting like you like the product you sell and just sponsor the shit. I have to skip past the first part of your video cause I know you guys bullshit about products you dont use.

    Anthony GordonAnthony GordonIl y a mois
  • The wisest man is the one who will admit that he knows nothing.

    Stephen LaswellStephen LaswellIl y a mois
  • Make sure you know he has it managed

    Dylan FioreDylan FioreIl y a mois
  • I do not Predict Trump will win. I Indict he will win. He won't if I blindfully believe he just has it good for him. I must take charge. Once one potential voter says I don't need to vote because he already as so many votes, every voters then withdrawals. We become complacent. We stop ourselves from making progress in this country. Don't do that. Be the one to make sure things go good, not believe they will, make it that you can know they will. And if Biden wins, everyone will trust that he will take control of our issues, but that would be the issue. Don't vote Biden wishing to believe he has control. Vote someone who will.

    Dylan FioreDylan FioreIl y a mois
  • Ok, this seems like a no brainer but, STOP PREDICTING. If people are basing their actions off of assumptions, then stop broadcasting it. We dont need predictions. We have survived for thousands of years without them. Just accept what is and move on.

    Mev SolMev SolIl y a mois
  • Dude I was dying at the anchorman clip cause it's so true but also he's so fucking dumb

    AlrightythenAlrightythenIl y a mois
  • I pretty much always listen to the science when it comes to things like this and I personally don’t mind the data changing. If anyone has taken a science class you know that you have to constantly adjust for variables. People look at it as a sign of like “don’t these scientists know anything?” It’s like well things change dude.

    Nicole MouserNicole MouserIl y a mois
  • more people need to learn statistics so democracy can work

    z0uLessz0uLessIl y a mois
  • So overall you're message he is continue to listen to people claiming to know exactly what they were talking about but who were wrong over and over again, and not the ones who never claimed to know it all but just had some suggestions that actually turned out not to be wrong.

    jamesdriggers2011jamesdriggers2011Il y a mois
  • Who can we really trust... Man that's a hard question, but my guess is on the one that doesn't represent any major mainstream interests, meaning someone that's either doing it for science, or art, those are the people I usually put my money on

    Jose Elías PallaresJose Elías PallaresIl y a mois
  • Poor Cramer probably held some Bear Stearns

    RhoadsAliveRhoadsAliveIl y a mois
  • the only sure thing is death and taxes, everything else is up for grabs. #VoteBlueToEndThisNightmare

    joey_rooklynjoey_rooklynIl y a mois
  • Is it the problem of prediction accuracy or a problem with propaganda over facts?🤔

    Yahawah ProvidenceYahawah ProvidenceIl y a mois
  • Ok. Big ups to WBAL! Shout out to Tom Tasselmyer! #BmoreStrong

    Joey EgersonJoey EgersonIl y a mois
  • The hedgehog thing comes from Isaiah Berlin, who in turn got it from the ancient Greek poet Archilochus: "The fox knows many little things, the hedgehog knows one big thing." Berlin's essay _The Hedgehog and the Fox_ actually identifies some pretty great hedgehogs from intellectual history: Nietzsche, Proust, Plato, Ibsen, Dostoyevsky, Hegel, Dante. I think being a fox, which according to Berlin puts you with Shakespeare and Montaigne, still appeals to me more though.

    John MoseleyJohn MoseleyIl y a mois
  • Truman v. Dewey. People usually don't admit mistakes, but with USA involved, that affects the whole world from Central Asia to Latin America. And that affects the whole world before people even get to vote. Predictionists should prioritize Mt. St. Helen.

    Rocha LeandroRocha LeandroIl y a mois
  • I honestly trust Wisecrack more than mainstream journalists at this point.

    gRomzgRomzIl y a mois
  • Trust no one...........

    wyowrenchwyowrenchIl y a mois
  • Are you Harry Nilsson's son

    Trevor YoungTrevor YoungIl y a mois
  • Anything is possible in America, therefore anything is possible elsewhere.

    blahoblahoIl y a mois
  • My year 2 macaroni diorama may predict the 2020 election.

    PMPPMPIl y a mois
  • Trump supporters won't understand a word of this video. They'll scratch their heads like confused chimps at a zoo.🙉🙈

    Shogun1982Shogun1982Il y a mois
  • Best male voice on the net. TgT

    tomg cooktowntomg cooktownIl y a mois
  • The WHO said "don't wear a mask unless you're sick" and that was a bad advice and they knew it. They lied to the world on purpose. Now how can you trust the "scientists" if the WHO speak for them?

    fenrirggfenrirggIl y a mois
  • Hcq is a good drug against Corona, if aplied the right way

    MichelMichelIl y a mois
  • Is an option a prediction?

    onecallaway420onecallaway420Il y a mois
  • CPG Grey predicted Brexit wasn't gonna happen cuse he thought the politicians behind it weren't serious in doing it. It was like believing Trump wasn't gonna build a wall cuse he wasn't serious. I stopped watching his videos after that cuse he's not as smart as what people think he is

    Kevin O'ConnorKevin O'ConnorIl y a mois
  • 1:24 BoJack reference) Nice!

    nobody3634nobody3634Il y a mois
  • Jorgensen 2020!

    Noble PhoenixNoble PhoenixIl y a mois
  • Nice bojack ref. Thanks.

    Nipuna WeerasekaraNipuna WeerasekaraIl y a mois
  • I love the Kraftwerk poster!!!!!😭❤️❤️

    Danae GreenDanae GreenIl y a mois
  • There are 2 major reasons, besides pure hubris and ignorance that predictions are often worse than pure chance.... Reflexivity, and chaos theory. The former is actually true for any kind of analytical psychology or sociology--no matter how sound your theories about the world might be (and thats not even suggesting they are), the very fact that you are sharing them with the world means you are contaminating the very thing you are studying. People are reflexive, they push back against being predicted, and they even take predictions and run with them and in doing so cause unintended and unpredicted side effects. In a lot of ways trump and the "lesser of 2 evils vote" is a direct result of this punditry. And this is none more evident than the failure of direct advertising--the ability to manipulate the emotions of a public that is directly aware that it is being manipulated is kneecapped by the very reflexivity of the current limits of their awareness of any given tactic. And chaos theory on the other hand is not so much relating to human psychology (although its my own personal theory that human consciousness might be an emergent property of chaos itself) but instead to the actual mathematics of the way our world works. Chaos theory is the reason you can't predict the weather for more than 2 weeks at a time, or the stock market, or so many other datasets and collections of numbers that people try to read trends in, it limits us to a very finite scope of determinism from which everything outside that becomes increasingly unpredictable and to even attempt to draw conclusions about what will happen is folly. Determinists, quite frankly, are just wrong. And that is even without taking the unpredictability of human behavior into account.

    Ben HinmanBen HinmanIl y a mois
  • God damn it Wisecrack guy, get a freaking haircut. That mane is getting on my nerves

    AA_BukowskiAA_BukowskiIl y a mois
  • Since tobacco companies no longet can manufacture credible "research" to prove that smoking is not harmful, they have changed tactics. Rather they are now pushing research to emphasize how hard it is to quit. Something which is meant to discourage people from trying. Idk maybe "predictors" are only trying to influence people to accept or assume that whatever outcome the predictor hopes for is already the outcome to either sway people over or discourage any resistance. Or just please your existing audience.

    Kristoffer StalbyKristoffer StalbyIl y a mois
  • I clicked coz wanted to see about 2016

    Shubham JoshiShubham JoshiIl y a mois
  • Trump will win in 2020...fact

    Fallen One 6Six6Fallen One 6Six6Il y a mois
  • My teacher said that schools will will close due to corona virus and stores will close down and we would mostly likely have to quarantine *Schools closed the next day and u know the rest happened*

    Hussain VirkHussain VirkIl y a mois
  • You touched on something that I really think you need to dig into more. Why do we like bold predictions? Is there a sociological aspect that causes us to want decisive leaders? Is there a psychological pain to being uncertain? Are we just looking for confirmation of our existing beliefs?

    Kenneth LeiderKenneth LeiderIl y a mois
  • Please do one video on "eat the rich" theme prevalent in movies and tv series now adays

    Ashes .AAshes .AIl y a mois
  • 5:14 Foxes do keep their ears to the ground. Still, I'm probably one, and I'll tell you this: This election is Biden's to lose and with the snubbing that the increasingly large pro-Bernie faction is seeing, coupled with the pre-Trump memory of outrage at establishment snobbishness being reinforced... I've got my money on four more years of lawless government. A.G.

    AussieGriffinAussieGriffinIl y a mois
  • There's a simple solution to when your predictions don't come true. Blame Russia.

    AwxenAwxenIl y a mois
  • From the title i can assume that They Didn't Predict their own failure

    Fizhouz3Fizhouz3Il y a mois
  • So... No mentioning of Halford John Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan or more recently - Zbigniew Bzhejinsky, George Friedman or the Stratfor and GPF?

    The KnightThe KnightIl y a mois
  • Biden will get controlled and manipulated and the state of the nation will be ruined even worse than it is now.

    MamodokodMamodokodIl y a 2 mois
  • Never could have predicted Jared doing the peace gesture right.

    LegoVogelLegoVogelIl y a 2 mois
  • I just love. Jarod

    Generic Fabric refresherGeneric Fabric refresherIl y a 2 mois
  • trump is most likely going to win based on how democrats are running democrat controlled cities or treating the riots with not charging rioters that committed felonies/ non victimless crimes. It's going to be the same thing that happened last election the democrats and how they're treating moderates is going to force them to go to trump ignoring the signs because of their over confidence that they have it in the bag.

    Michael MujadinMichael MujadinIl y a 2 mois
  • You are not listening at all to other sides except your own. This is what went wrong and will go wrong again and again until you stop your tribalistic mentality.

    How the world worksHow the world worksIl y a 2 mois
  • Taiwan people all love Trump for fighting against China, If Biden wins the next country to fall to the CCP will be Taiwan. So I'm asking all of America to VOTE Trump, if Trump loses, Taiwan will fall next if the pressure against China is not stopped. Biden will do absolutely nothing for the taiwanese people. My parents are praying that Trump wins the election because of how China might invade Taiwan.

    Jack DanielsJack DanielsIl y a 2 mois
  • Conclusions: 1) Make less detailed plans the more they are farther into the future 2) Don't watch-believe predictions of non-scientists, and if they are scientist check how frequently they say they don't know things. Being an expert is not that you know things, but also to know how much you don't know. 3) If radical changes happen act accordingly and without panic. If radical changes might happen, don't worry beforehand. People shouldn't worry for things they can't control. It is bad to live the lie that there is stability and safety and suddenly be afraid that something can change that. Something can change that all the time. For a meteor falling from the sky, to a sudden illness or accident, bad things can happen out of nowhere. The important thing is to deal with them accordingly when they happen and accept that what we can do sometimes is limited.

    Jim BellosJim BellosIl y a 2 mois
  • In 2016, literally nothing went wrong with the predictions., which has the best models, predicted 70/30 for Hillary. If you know a thing or two about probabilities and how the US electoral system works, you'd have known that this was a tossup. 70/30 in terms of probabilities is closer to 50/50 than it is to any of the candidates winning. And yet when Trump won pundits went berserk like it was literally impossible. This speaks more about the illiterate American electorate than it speaks about the predictions. Overall, you need to know who's doing the predictions, how they're doing them and what the predictions mean before you can make a judgement on them.

    Naum RusomarovNaum RusomarovIl y a 2 mois
  • Decimate that subscribe button. I like that.

    AJ RamosAJ RamosIl y a 2 mois
  • Holy crap, I have literally the same exact Doors and Chuck Berry poster in my room!

    Benny DavisBenny DavisIl y a 2 mois
  • I can’t stand Trump, but I’m certain he will win. We swore he wouldn’t win last time, and now he has an even bigger and more “drank from the kool aid” amount of followers

    Daniel LauerDaniel LauerIl y a 2 mois
  • Oh btw apparently hydroxycloiquin (idk how to spell it) actually works during early virus. Because Trump said it helped, doctors have started to only use it when the virus worsens, making it look ineffective or even dangerous in data due to the fact that if you give a drug that only helps early on to people who are close to death, they'll probably fucking die.

    JacobJacobIl y a 2 mois
  • trump 2020

    The Bleeding CowThe Bleeding CowIl y a 2 mois
  • The simpsons did predict that he will win again and bankrupt the country let that sink in

    Tea TeaTea TeaIl y a 2 mois
  • "What is it that you think you know, and how do you know that?"

    Waitwhat469Waitwhat469Il y a 2 mois
  • love the subtle BoJack reference

    Liselotte WillemsLiselotte WillemsIl y a 2 mois
  • This video made me realize the difference between large television news networks in Canada compared to those in the United States. Canadian television news networks feature more accurate less sensationalist experts than their American counterparts. Try comparing Fox News or MSNBC to CBC News or CTV News.

    Colin MunroColin MunroIl y a 2 mois
  • "Decimate" that subscribe button? The violence is escalating.

    P. B AmygdalaP. B AmygdalaIl y a 2 mois